(電子商務研究中心訊) 譯文：穩(wěn)健的1Q利率;2017年晚些時候可能會有更多的投資
京東的凈收入為762億元人民幣，增長2%?？侴MV達到1841億歐元(+ 42%);在線直銷和市場GMV均超過2%?？偫麧櫬蕿?6%，比DBe高出30%。強勁的營運杠桿，令非gaap凈收入為14億元人民幣，遠高于350億元人民幣。該公司的2Q收入為88 - 925億元人民幣(+ 35% - 39%)，中間點比DBe高3%。京東金融代表著14億元人民幣的指導。隨著盈利能力的大幅提升，京東似乎準備在季節(jié)性促銷、FMCG成功、研發(fā)和其他新舉措方面大舉投資。盡管我們將2013年的非gaap凈利潤率維持在0.8%不變，但我們預計，在實現(xiàn)長期盈利能力的道路上，將會有一條更加清晰的道路，并有望在未來的道路上行。
認真對待線下協(xié)調(diào)
提高1P利潤率，明顯地表明了京東日益擴大的采購規(guī)模。在一些領先的類別中，京東仍與領先的線下零售商保持著10ppts的利潤率差距，從而暗示著大幅提升。京東重申其長期目標是直接銷售3% - 5%的凈利潤率，并為GMV提供1 - 2%的凈收入。我們預計，從長期來看，這將轉化為一種混合的高個位數(shù)的非gaap凈利潤率，假設京東有30%的GMV來自直接銷售。因此，我們提高了外部年份的保證金假設，以反映出更好的利潤率前景。
2017年主要投資領域;最新進入硅谷的領域
FMCG正在以一種非常有意義的方式增長，盡管它正在燒錢。京東預計京東商城的盈利能力將有助于抵消FMCG項目的壓力，并沒有削減投資的計劃。我們設想在硅谷建立一個計劃中的研究團隊，提高研發(fā)費用。鑒于最近的項目延期，資本支出也會增加，從而抑制FCFF。京東打算通過特許便利商店繼續(xù)建立一個線上到線下的網(wǎng)絡。在京東的核心業(yè)務盈利能力提高后，我們?nèi)杂?.8%的凈利潤率。由于長期關注非京東客戶，京東物流的重組可能會帶來額外的利潤。京東將在年底前覆蓋中國所有縣和城市。
非常明確的好處。提升14.6%至41.6美元;維持買入我們將FY17/18/19E的收入提高3% / 2% / 1%，以更好地反映收入前景;我們基本上保持了對fy17/18 / 19的非gaap凈利潤率預估，這是基于未改變的利潤率預測。因此，我們的非gaap凈收入分別增長了6% / 2% / 2%。我們的TP是基于同等權重的DCF(wacc- 12.3%[0%債務]，tgr2%)和1.1x FY17E EV /銷售(與國際電子商務玩家)。風險:較高的O2O損失，較慢的用戶/ GMV擴展;FMCG戰(zhàn)役失敗。
原文：Solid 1Q on margin; more investment likely later in 2017
JD net revenue of RMB76.2bn beat DBe and consensus by 2%. Total GMV reached 184.1bn (+42% YoY); both online direct sale and marketplace GMV beat DBe by 2%. A gross margin of 16% was 30bps ahead of DBe. Strong operating leverage led to impressive non-GAAP net income of RMB1.4bn, vs DBe RMB350mn. The company guided to 2Q revenue of RMB88-90.5bn (+35%-39% YoY), the mid-point of which is 3% higher than DBe. JD Finance represents RMB1.4bn of the guidance. With profitability coming in magnitudes above expectations, JD seems ready to reinvest heavily in the areas of seasonal promotions, FMCG success, R&D and other new initiatives. While we leave 2017E non-GAAP net margin of 0.8% unchanged, we envision a much clearer path toward long-term profitability and expect upside along the way.
Taking margin harmonization with the offline seriously
Improving 1P margin is significantly indicative of JD’s growing procurement scale. For some leading categories, JD still maintains a 10ppts margin gap with leading offline retailers, thus suggesting substantial improvement upside. JD reiterated its long-term target of a 3-5% net margin for its direct sale and a 1-2% net income to GMV for marketplace. We expect this to translate into a blended high-single-digit non-GAAP net margin in the long term, assuming JD derives 30% of its GMV from direct sales. We therefore lift our margin assumption for outer years to reflect a better margin outlook.
Major investments areas in 2017; the latest to move into Silicon Valley
FMCG is growing in a very meaningful way, although it is burning money. JD expects the profitability of JD Mall to help offset pressures from the FMCG program and has no plan to cut back on investment. We envision higher R&D expense driven by a planned research team build-up in Silicon Valley. Capex should also rise given recent project postponements, thus suppressing FCFF. JD intends to continue to build up an online-to-offline network by franchising convenience stores. We are still confident in a 0.8% net margin after these investments driven by JD’s improving core business profitability. The restructuring of JD Logistics could bring some extra margin given its long-term focus on non-JD clients. JD delivery intends to cover all counties and cities in China by year-end.
Very clear margin upside. Lifting TP by 14.6% to US$41.6; Maintain Buy
We lift FY17/18/19E revenue by 3%/2%/1% to reflect better a revenue outlook; we largely maintain our non-GAAP net margin forecast for FY17/18/19 given the unchanged margin profile forecasts. We therefore increase non-GAAP net income by 6%/2%/2% respectively. Our TP is based on an equal weighting of DCF (WACC-12.3% [0% debt], TGR-2%) and 1.1x FY17E EV/Sales (in line with international e-commerce players). Risks: higher O2O losses, slower user/GMV expansion; failure in FMCG campaigns.（來源：德意志銀行；文/Alan Hellawell；編選：網(wǎng)經(jīng)社）
